Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) confirms the arrival of El Niño in India. For India, it has historically been linked with extreme conditions, including weaker monsoon rainfall, higher temperatures, prolonged dry spells, and an increased risk of drought in some years.
El Niño
El Niño is a natural climate pattern associated with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and its impacts are ultimately seen in certain regions.
IMD's warning on El Niño
The Indian Meteorological Department has officially announced the arrival of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, cautioning that this climate phenomenon is expected to intensify during the current southwest monsoon season.
In the June 2026 ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Bulletin, the IMD said that warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have exceeded the threshold for El Niño.
The atmosphere has also responded to the ocean warming, indicating that the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is now firmly in an El Niño state.
IMD, in its Bulletin, states that El Niño conditions are currently present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the southwest Monsoon season. Besides, Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) forecasts suggest that El Niño is likely to intensify as the season progresses.
Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific exceeded the El Niño threshold in June 2026. The onset of El Niño is officially determined through monitoring, with the latest three-month average Niño 3.4 index as the key indicator, used to monitor the phenomenon once it rises above +0.5°C.
The IMD noted that strong positive temperatures are also observed beneath the ocean surface across large parts of the equatorial Pacific, a signal that warmer-than-average conditions are likely to persist and reinforce the event in the coming months.
Forecasts suggest that above-average sea surface temperatures will continue in the central Pacific from June to August. These anomalies are anticipated to expand and intensify across both the central and eastern Pacific starting in July. The most recent model predictions indicate that moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions are likely to prevail throughout a significant portion of the southwest monsoon season.
El Niño's Impact in India
For India, the weather is historically linked to weaker monsoon rainfall, higher temperatures, Prolonged dry spells, and an increased risk of drought in some years.
Apart from the impact of El Niño, India's climate is also influenced by the neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevailing over the Indian Ocean and likely to continue through the monsoon season. A neutral IOD means it is unlikely to amplify or offset El Niño's effects this year significantly.
The IMD said it will continue to closely monitor the evolving Pacific Ocean conditions and issue monthly updates as the monsoon season progresses.
