The discarded Space X falcon 9 rocket that launched in early 2025 will strike the moon later this summer, likely on its near side. It will collide with the moon on August 5, 2026, at 2:44 am ET.
The Falcon 9 Timelines and Details
Bill Gray, creator of the widely used Project Pluto tracking software, released a comprehensive report as a tool for documenting the impact details. The collision will mark a historic moment in space exploration, set for August 5.
The upper stage of the Falcon 9 is 13.8 meters tall and 3.7 meters in diameter. Since January 2025, it has been floating through space after successfully launching the Firefly Blue Ghost lunar lander. This stage accomplished its main mission by delivering the lander to the Mare Crisium area of the moon on March 2, 2025.
The rocket will travel seven times the speed of sound and hit the moon near the Einstein crater on the border between the near and far sides. The debris is designed to maintain its full velocity throughout impact because there is no atmosphere on the moon. He also assures that it will not affect the moon, as it has no living beings.
The happening impact will provide minor information for lunar researchers studying surface composition and impact mechanics. It will let them create a new crater, providing valuable data for future analysis. Although Gray said he believes the impact will probably be too faint to be detected by Earth-based telescopes.
Firefly and Blueghost mission success
The rocket in question launched in early 2025, carrying two lunar landers. One of them, Firefly Aerospace's Blue Origin, successfully touched down on the moon in March. The other, ispace's Japanese-built Hakuto-R, lost contact with Earth and crashed-landed that June. Meanwhile, the spent Falcon 9 upper stage, 45 feet tall and no longer useful to anyone, was left to drift through the Earth-moon system, tumbling in orbit, going nowhere until gravity decided for it.
Not the first Time this has happened
Four years ago, according to the ars report, Astronomers initially thought that another Falcon 9 upper stage would hit the Moon. However, further investigation showed that the object in question was actually an upper stage from China's Chang'e 5-T1 mission. Grey stated there is no uncertainty about the identity of this object, as it has been monitored since its launch.
The Falcon 9 incident on August 5 emphasises the importance of improved space debris management as commercial space travel grows. Although it didn't pose an immediate danger to operational spacecraft, the collision created a new lunar crater and heightened awareness of orbital debris issues.
The event showcases achievements in commercial spaceflight and the need for enhanced tracking systems and regulatory frameworks. As more companies venture into space, the industry needs to strike a balance between rapid growth and responsible debris management to sustain operations in the long run.
